Daniel Perkins - Bayesian network decision support tool

Using a Bayesian network decision support tool to develop ecosystem services valuation associated with conservation buffers in production agriculture

Abstract: A prototype tool has been developed that values ecosystem services (ES) associated with conservation buffers. The tool uses a Bayesian network to evaluate economic potential of ES surrounding conservation buffers under varying ecological models, economic markets, and incentives. The Agricultural Policy Extender Model (APEX) provides the environmental parameters for a farm-scale blueberry growing area with corresponding conservation buffers. The outputs from the APEX system model are dynamically used by an ES valuation engine. The ES potential of a conservation buffer (evaluated in dollars) is presented as a distribution. Components of the ES model include: carbon sequestration, nutrient load reduction, pollination, and crop productivity. Economic endpoints were evaluated under multiple combinations of ecological and economic process parameters to evaluate how information and knowledge about the system changes decision-making paradigms.