Publications
The Effect of Assessment Scale and Metric Selection on the Greenhouse Gas Benefits of Woody Biomass
February 2012 - by Christopher S. Galik and Robert C. Abt
Recent media attention has focused on the net greenhouse gas (GHG) implications of using woody biomass to produce energy. In particular, a great deal of controversy has erupted over the biomass accounting techniques used to evaluate these GHG effects. This paper informs the present debate over the GHG effects of woody biomass use by conducting a comparative analysis of these accounting techniques. It compares these techniques in a hypothetical scenario in which coal-fired power plants in Virginia add woody biomass to their fuel mix—a process known as “cofiring.” It finds that these techniques strongly influence the calculated GHG balance. The paper also assesses the relative effect of the accounting approach on differences in GHG balance, and concludes with implications for policy makers.
Determining the Least-Cost Investment for an Existing Coal Plant to Comply with EPA Regulations under Uncertainty
February 2012 - by David Hoppock, Dalia Patino Echeverri, and Etan Gumerman
Low natural gas prices and forthcoming Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations for coal plant emissions, coal wastes, and thermal-generation cooling systems are forcing utilities and utility regulators to decide whether to retrofit or to retire and replace existing coal plants. To help utility commissions and other interested parties make informed investment decisions and quantify cost risk for ratepayers, researchers at Duke University will make the Risk Based Decision Model available to the public. The model can be employed to estimate the impact of abrupt changes, or “shocks,” and the cost of making “bad” investments that are later abandoned. To demonstrate the model, this paper models the least-cost investment decision for Louisville Gas and Electric’s Mill Creek coal-fired power plant to meet the forthcoming EPA regulations under uncertainty using publicly available data.
Stacking Ecosystem Services Payments: Risks and Solutions
February 2012
Healthy ecosystems provide many services to society, including water filtration, biodiversity habitat protection, and carbon sequestration. A number of incentive programs and markets have arisen to pay landowners for these services, raising questions about how landowners can receive multiple payments for the ecosystem services they provide from the same parcel, a practice known as stacking. Stacking can provide multiple revenue streams for landowners and encourage them to manage their lands for multiple ecosystem services. However, if not well-managed, it may also lead to a net loss of services.
The Potential Role for Management of U.S. Public Lands in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
January 2012
Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.
Regulating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing Sources: Section 111(d) and State Equivalency
January 2012 - by Jonas Monast, Tim Profeta, and Brooks Rainey Pearson
On December 9, 2011, the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions convened a broad range of stakeholders to explore the legal and policy issues presented by the regulation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under §111(d) (existing source performance standards) of the Clean Air Act. The workshop focused primarily on options for states to demonstrate that existing GHG policies are equivalent to the 111(d) requirements. The Nicholas Institute distributed this document to workshop participants prior to the event to provide a framework for the issues that would be discussed. The authors drafted the document and the straw proposal included in the appendix to stimulate discussion. Nothing in this document should be interpreted as expressing the Nicholas Institute’s opinion of the path the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency should take on any given issue.
Reducing the Energy Penalty Costs of Postcombustion CCS Systems with Amine-Storage
January 2012
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can significantly reduce the amount of CO2 emitted from coal-fired power plants, but its high capital and operating costs are an important barrier. In this paper we analyze one alternative to reduce operating costs of amine-based CCS systems.
Green Economy in a Blue World
January 2012 - by United Nations Environment Programme, et al.
This report highlights how ecological health and economic productivity of marine and coastal ecosystems, which are currently in decline around the globe, can be boosted by shifting to a more sustainable economic paradigm that taps their natural potential. Released by the United Nations Environment Programme and partners, it further highlights how the sustainable management of fertilizers would help reduce the cost of marine pollution caused by nitrogen and other nutrients used in agriculture, which is estimated at $100 billion per year in the European Union alone.
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Agricultural Land Management in the United States: A Synthesis of the Literature (Third Edition)
January 2012 - by Alison J. Eagle, Lydia P. Olander, Lucy R. Henry, Karen Haugen-Kozyra, Neville Millar, and G. Philip Robertson
The Net Global Effects of Alternative U.S. Biofuel Mandates: Fossil Fuel Displacement, Indirect Land Use Change, and the Role of Agricultural Productivity Growth
January 2012 - by Aline Mosnier, Petr Havlík, Hugo Valin, Justin S. Baker, Brian C. Murray, Siyi Feng, Michael Obersteiner, Bruce A. McCarl, Steven K. Rose, and Uwe A. Schneider
One of the declared objectives of U.S. biofuel policy is the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, but many studies have questioned whether such a reduction would actually occur and, if so, how large it would be. This report describes the global market, land use, GHG emissions, and nitrogen use impacts of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) and several alternative biofuel policy designs, which differ in terms of mandate magnitude and feedstock composition, over the 2010–2030 period.
Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture
December 2011 - by Eva 'Lini' Wollenberg, Marja-Liisa Tapio-Bistrom, Maryanne Grieg-Gran, Alison Nihart
A new book features two chapters on reducing agricultural greenhouse gas emissions penned by researchers at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions—Brian Murray and Lydia Olander. The 456-page book reviews the state of agricultural climate mitigation globally and focuses on the design and implementation of activities to reduce emissions and increase carbon storage.
OptimaCCS Carbon Capture and Storage Infrastructure Optimization: Texas Case Study
December 2011 - by Darmawan Prasodjo and Lincoln Pratson
The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the United States will allow coal-fired power generation to remain a major component of the nation’s energy mix while also reducing its carbon emissions. The cost of capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) will affect the deployment of CCS, as will the costs for CO2 pipeline transport and underground injection. Transportation and storage costs can be minimized, however, by optimizing the design of the transport system. This report examines how a software program created at Duke, OptimaCCS, maps out cost-efficient options for overall CCS network design, including pipeline routes, necessary pipe diameters and lengths, efficiencies from using shared pipelines, and the impact of sequestration costs.
Profiling Local Climate Change Governance in the Southeastern United States
December 2011 - by Amy Morsch
While other regions have taken a more proactive approach, state and federal government officials and privately owned utilities have largely dismissed the idea of climate and energy policies in the southeastern United States. In this environment, many cities have developed climate and sustainability programs independent of state action. In the summer of 2011, the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions surveyed Southeastern cities with populations greater than 100,000 on their sustainability, climate, and energy policies and practices. This report presents the results of that survey, which reflect how local governments in the region are articulating goals, exercising influence and authority, and planning and implementing policy. The research revisits many of the topics analyzed in a similar 2010 Nicholas Institute report, and it provides a glimpse at the direction of local governments in the Southeast.
Distribution of Emissions Permits to the U.S. Pulp and Paper Sector under Alternative Output-Based Allocation Schemes
December 2011 - by Joshua Schneck and Gale Boyd
Under a cap-and-trade climate policy, emissions allowances—tradable rights to emit a fixed amount of greenhouse gases—become scarce and valuable resources that change the economic incentives to implement more energy-efficient processes and energy management practices, and to select fuels with lower carbon content. A key question accompanying the design of any such policy is how to allocate these allowances. This paper examines how key design elements and industry characteristics affect the distribution of allowances to U.S. pulp and paper firms under three variations of a proposed output-based allocation program—the American Power Act’s emissions allowance rebate program.
Myths and Facts About Electricity in the U.S. South
December 2011
This paper identifies six myths about clean electricity in the southern United States. These myths are either propagated by the public at-large, shared within the environmental advocacy culture, or spread imperceptibly between policy makers. Using a widely accepted energy-economic modeling tool, the paper exposes these myths as half-truths and the kind of conventional wisdom that constrains productive debate. In doing so, it identifies new starting points for energy policy development.
Financing Options for Blue Carbon: Opportunities and Lessons from the REDD+ Experience
November 2011 - by David Gordon, Brian C. Murray, Linwood Pendleton, and Britta Victor
When development pressures transform mangroves, seagrass, and coastal wetlands, carbon stored in their biomass and soil is released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide. One way to counter these pressures and thereby conserve the carbon stored in these habitats (referred to as “blue carbon”) is to provide payments for the environmental services they provide. This paper analyzes current and potential options for carbon mitigation payments as a source of blue carbon finance. With other work that has focused on the payments needed to secure blue carbon, this paper can help stakeholders assess funding gaps and direct scarce resources to those activities that will provide the greatest blue carbon benefits.
Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches
November 2011
Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (1) higher sea level will cause all beaches to become more narrow, all things being held constant, and (2) sea level rise may affect patterns of beach erosion and accretion when severe storms combine with higher high tides. To understand the potential economic impacts of these two outcomes, this study examined the physical and economic effects of permanent beach loss caused by inundation due to sea level rise of one meter and of erosion and accretion caused by a single, extremely stormy year (using a model of beach change based on the wave climate conditions of the El Niño year of 1982/1983.)
The impact of climate change on California’s ecosystem services
November 2011
Ecosystem services play a crucial role in sustaining human well-being and economic viability. People benefit substantially from the delivery of ecosystem services, for which substitutes usually are costly or unavailable. Climate change will substantially alter or eliminate certain ecosystem services in the future. To better understand the consequences of climate change and to develop effective means of adapting to them, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the links between climate, ecosystem service production, and the economy. This study examines the impact of climate change on the terrestrial distribution and the subsequent production and value of two key ecosystem services in California: (1) carbon sequestration and (2) natural (i.e. non-irrigated) forage production for livestock.
Considering Shale Gas Extraction in North Carolina: Lessons from Other States
November 2011 - by Sarah Plikunas, Brooks Rainey Pearson, Jonas Monast, Avner Vengosh and Rob Jackson
Because North Carolina has no active oil and gas production and no existing regulatory framework for this industry, it has a unique opportunity to build a program from the ground up. This paper looks at the environmental and health concerns surrounding hydraulic fracturing to extract natural gas trapped below the ground, and shares regulatory approaches other states are taking to reduce these risks. Further, it focuses on several measures North Carolina lawmakers should understand when considering whether, and under what conditions, to allow shale gas extraction in the state.
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Opportunities for Agricultural Land Management in the United States
October 2011 - by Lydia P. Olander and Alison J. Eagle
A number of on-farm management practices can help to reduce U.S. agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and generate significant increases in carbon sequestration. This brief summarizes the mitigation potential and the state of scientific knowledge for a wide range of agricultural practices in the United States and highlights key issues for implementing programs to incentivize GHG mitigation in agriculture.
Assessing Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Opportunities and Implementation Strategies for Agricultural Land Management in the United States
October 2011 - by Lydia P. Olander, Alison J. Eagle, Justin S. Baker, Karen Haugen-Kozyra, Brian C. Murray, Alexandra Kravchenko, Lucy R. Henry, and Robert B. Jackson
Approximately 6% of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States come from agriculture. This number could be reduced through the use of on-farm management practices, such as switching to no-till, reducing fallow, managing species composition on grazing lands, and adjusting management of nitrogen fertilizer. Efforts are under way by government, industry, and others to incentivize such practices by creating new business opportunities or revenue for farmers and ranchers. This assessment reviews a wide range of agricultural practices and provides a roadmap and resource for programs and initiatives that are designing protocols, metrics, or incentives to engage farmers and ranchers in large-scale efforts to enhance GHG mitigation on working agricultural land in the United States.
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