Publications by Etan Gumerman
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Determining the Least-Cost Investment for an Existing Coal Plant to Comply with EPA Regulations under Uncertainty
February 2012 - by David Hoppock, Dalia Patino Echeverri, and Etan Gumerman
Low natural gas prices and forthcoming Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations for coal plant emissions, coal wastes, and thermal-generation cooling systems are forcing utilities and utility regulators to decide whether to retrofit or to retire and replace existing coal plants. To help utility commissions and other interested parties make informed investment decisions and quantify cost risk for ratepayers, researchers at Duke University will make the Risk Based Decision Model available to the public. The model can be employed to estimate the impact of abrupt changes, or “shocks,” and the cost of making “bad” investments that are later abandoned. To demonstrate the model, this paper models the least-cost investment decision for Louisville Gas and Electric’s Mill Creek coal-fired power plant to meet the forthcoming EPA regulations under uncertainty using publicly available data.
Myths and Facts About Electricity in the U.S. South
December 2011
This paper identifies six myths about clean electricity in the southern United States. These myths are either propagated by the public at-large, shared within the environmental advocacy culture, or spread imperceptibly between policy makers. Using a widely accepted energy-economic modeling tool, the paper exposes these myths as half-truths and the kind of conventional wisdom that constrains productive debate. In doing so, it identifies new starting points for energy policy development.
Myths and Facts About Electricity in the U.S. South
September 2011 - by Marilyn A. Brown, Etan Gumerman, Xiaojing Sun, Gyungwon Kim, Kenneth Sercy
This paper identifies six myths about clean electricity in the southern United States. These myths are either propagated by the public at-large, shared within the environmental advocacy culture, or spread imperceptibly between policy makers. Using a widely accepted energy-economic modeling tool, the paper exposes these myths as half-truths and the kind of conventional wisdom that constrains productive debate. In doing so, it identifies new starting points for energy policy development.
Renewable Energy in the South
December 2010 - by Marilyn A. Brown, Etan Gumerman, Youngsun Baek, Cullen Morris, Yu Wang
Transitioning away from increasingly scarce, carbon-intensive and polluting fossil fuels is one of the key challenges facing modern society. Prominent among the energy supply options, with inherently low life-cycle CO2 emissions, is a suite of renewable technologies that represent an opportunity to diversify energy resources. This report builds on a short policy brief released last summer and provides an in-depth assessment of the scope of renewable energy resources in the South and their economic impacts on electricity rates and utility bills in the region.
Estimating the Employment Impacts of Energy and Environmental Policies and Programs: Workshop Summary Report
December 2010 - by Josh Schneck, Brian C. Murray, Etan Gumerman, and Suzanne Tegen
With U.S. unemployment rates hovering near 10 percent, new energy and environmental policies are being scrutinized more and more for their ability to create jobs. Yet, the information provided concerning these policies’ impact on jobs is widely variable, is often conflicting, and can confuse policymaking efforts. This policy brief summarizes the key points of a workshop the Nicholas Institute convened in October, which examined how to best estimate and convey the employment impacts that may result from enactment of energy and environmental policy.
Renewable Energy in the South: A Policy Brief
July 2010 - by Marilyn A. Brown, Etan Gumerman, Youngsun Baek, Cullen Morris, Yu Wang
This working paper assesses the economic potential of renewable electricity generation in the South under alternative policy scenarios. Using a customized version of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), we examine the impact of 1) expanded and updated estimates of renewable resources, 2) a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), and 3) a Carbon-Constrained Future (CCF). Under the Expanded Renewables Scenario, renewable electricity generation doubles the output of the Reference forecast for the South. If a Federal RPS is imposed or the policies represented by our CCF scenario are implemented, we estimate that 15% to 30% of the South’s electricity could be generated from renewable sources. Among the renewable resources, wind, biomass, and hydro are anticipated to provide the most generation potential. As the integration of renewable sources expands through the modeled time horizon, wind gradually out-competes biomass in the renewable electricity market. Cost-effective customer-owned renewables could also contribute significantly to electricity generation by 2030 in the South, under supportive policies.
Energy Efficiency in the South
April 2010 - by Marilyn A. Brown, Etan Gumerman, Xiaojing Sun, Youngsun Baek, Joy Wang, Rodrigo Cortes, and Diran Soumonni
Energy Efficiency in the South is a recent report by a team of researchers at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions and Georgia Institute of Technology and that uses state-of-the-art economic modeling to evaluate the potential impact of energy efficiency policies on Southern states. The energy efficiency policies examined by the research team fall into three broad categories: residential, commercial, and industrial. The report also includes state profiles for each state in the region (including the District of Columbia) and the economic and employment impacts of energy efficiency for each individual state.
An Evaluation of Utah's Greenhouse Gas Reduction Options
August 2009 - by Etan Gumerman and Brigham Daniels
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