Escalating temperatures pose substantial health and economic risks. It's just the type of emergent challenge that Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability was created to address. Institute experts are working with decision-makers to develop practical tools that help communities prepare.
Ashley Ward knows heat. As a high school student, she worked in tobacco fields in Person County, North Carolina. Later, employed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s regional climate program, she heard from North Carolinians about their efforts to cope with extreme heat—including difficult choices between buying medication and running AC.
These experiences would eventually shape a new Duke effort to help communities respond to rising temperatures.
Extreme heat is becoming more common and lasting longer across the Southeast, with rising humidity and warmer nighttime temperatures increasing health risks. In 2023 alone, an estimated 11,000 Americans died from heat—more than from any other weather-related cause.
In 2019, Ward joined Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, where experts work directly with policymakers, business leaders and communities to address emerging environmental challenges. She initially was hired by the Water Policy Program, helping lead a national movement to transform water data infrastructure.
When Institute Director Brian Murray invited staff to propose “big ideas” aligned with the Duke Climate Commitment in 2023, Ward successfully pitched the Heat Policy Innovation Hub.
Through the hub, Nicholas Institute experts collaborate with state agencies and local governments across North Carolina to help communities prepare for extreme heat. Partners include the North Carolina Departments of Environmental Quality (DEQ) and Health and Human Services (DHHS), as well as the State Climate Office.
Emergency management officials from ten North Carolina counties worked with Duke experts and agency partners to ensure the heat action plan template could be customized effectively.
With these partners, hub experts helped develop a Heat Action Plan Toolkit and a cohort-based training program for city and county governments.
Andrea Webster, a resilience policy advisor in the State Resilience Office at DEQ, said local governments were concerned about extreme heat but often didn’t know where to begin. “It became clear that a toolkit was something we could contribute toward this gap,” Webster said.
The toolkit includes guidance on heat-related illness, outreach messaging, response planning and tools to help counties identify vulnerable populations.
Ward knew localization would be key. State partners along with the hub team piloted a draft version of the Heat Action Plan Toolkit with a variety of counties to ensure plans could be tailored for local geographies, demographics, services and resources.
In 2026, Allison Romano, public health program planner and coordinator for Onslow County, joined the Planning for Extreme Heat Cohort program, hosted annually by the State Resilience Office and the State Climate Office for emergency managers. “We were able to develop an extreme heat action plan for the county,” Romano said, “and how we’re going to coordinate among the public health department, social services, emergency services and 911.”
Counties also need to know when to activate their plans. Nicholas Institute experts collaborated with state agencies to create an evidence-based framework for making those decisions.
Hub researchers analyzed weather data and emergency department records for heat-related visits to establish heat index thresholds for eight regions of the state, tied to a DHHS email alert system.
North Carolina is now one of a few states with regional heat thresholds and an alert system.
The revised North Carolina Heat Health Alert System helps North Carolinians identify unsafe heat index levels.
Jeremy Knighton, chief of emergency management for the city of Asheville, agreed that Duke’s role in supporting hazard mitigation planning is invaluable. “I have experience in real-life issues,” he said, “but academia can access information, research and methodology. When we can combine those strengths, it makes us more resilient.”
Beyond its work in North Carolina, the Heat Policy Innovation Hub is also informing responses to extreme heat at the national and international levels.
For example, its HeatWise Policy Partnership brings together representatives from diverse sectors to accelerate heat resilience across the United States. “You have to get people in the room who don’t normally talk to each other,” Ward said. Corporate, foundation, and nonprofit partners sponsor the gatherings.
HeatWise convenings have revealed critical information gaps—ranging from analysis of state-level heat legislation to calculation of heat’s economic impacts—that Nicholas Institute experts are now addressing.
Ward and colleagues regularly meet with Congressional staffers from both parties to provide data and insights relevant to their districts.
The hub team has also partnered with United Nations agencies to launch heat governance tools for member nations.
“Duke created the Nicholas Institute two decades ago to inform environmental decisions with nimble, trustworthy information and analysis,” said Nicholas Institute Director Brian Murray. “We’ve developed a track record of meaningful impact on urgent challenges like heat.”
From rural North Carolina to Capitol Hill to Geneva, the Nicholas Institute is helping communities and policymakers respond to one of the fastest-growing climate risks.
- By Mary-Russell Roberson
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