Recent shifts in federal climate policy—including an announcement this week by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)—will make any future U.S. effort to achieve a clean energy transition significantly more costly, according to a new analysis by Duke University experts.
The analysis, published by Duke’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, models how policies implemented during the Trump administration alter the trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, electricity generation sources and electricity sector costs compared to past policies. The analysis focuses on three policy changes:
- The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by Congress in 2025, revoked most of the clean energy incentives in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
- In June 2025, the EPA proposed repealing its Final Greenhouse Gas Rule regulating emissions from existing coal and new natural gas power plants. The EPA announced Sept. 14 that it finalized repeal of the rule.
- The Trump administration is not issuing permits for construction of new offshore wind facilities and, in some cases, has paid companies to abandon existing plans.
The authors then model a scenario in which the next presidential administration works with Congress to target net-zero emissions from the electricity sector by mid-century. Data show delaying progress toward that goal under current policies could cost the sector an estimated $12 billion per year on average from 2032 to 2050.
“The EPA’s repeal of carbon-pollution standards for fossil-fuel power plants further shifts the policy environment in which utilities and investors are making long-term decisions about infrastructure and generation,” said author Jackson Ewing, director of energy and climate policy at the Nicholas Institute. “Against a backdrop of unprecedented electricity demand from data centers and other large users, our modeling shows that delaying the clean electricity transition makes achieving plausible future energy and environmental goals substantially more costly—for companies and their customers.”
Other key findings from the analysis include:
- Elimination of IRA clean electricity incentives and repeal of EPA’s Final GHG Rule have put industry emissions on a much higher trajectory (40% to 60% higher in cumulative terms through 2050), assuming that policies such as these are not reinstated in the future.
- There may not be dramatic increases in natural gas capacity specifically tied to current policies since abandoning the GHG Rule keeps existing coal plants operating longer. However, higher demand from data centers can lead to additional gas generation regardless of federal policies.
- If natural gas prices remain low in the future, emissions will rise significantly, regardless of the policy environment.
- In the current policy environment, higher electricity demand growth is more likely to lead to new gas capacity and maintaining existing coal plants rather than to renewables.
- The IRA incentives and GHG Rule would have positioned the electricity sector to achieve net-zero goals at a modest cost (estimated at $27/ton of CO2 removed), even with higher demand from data centers. Costs of achieving net zero starting from the emissions trends under current policies would be substantially higher.
“The possible future of electricity sector emissions looks very different today than it did just a few years ago,” said lead author Martin Ross, senior research economist at the Nicholas Institute. “Regardless of the policy landscape, declining capital costs for renewables are likely to reduce the carbon intensiveness of the industry over time. But our modeling suggests that high demand growth will make it difficult to further contain emissions and meet any future climate goals. Removal of climate policies and regulations that provided some certainty to the industry will only make planning harder.”
The analysis is part of the Nicholas Institute’s work with decision-makers to plan for growing electricity demand. Duke experts and partners are conducting rigorous research to help policymakers, utilities, regulators and large energy users identify practical pathways to identify reliable, affordable and sustainable solutions.
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CITATION: Ross, M. T., and J. Ewing. 2026. The Future of US Climate Policy: Costs of Delaying the Clean Electricity Transition. NI 26-13. Durham, NC: Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University. https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/publications/future-us-climate-policy.
For media inquiries, contact the Nicholas Institute communications team at ni-comm@duke.edu.
