Three Key Takeaways: Rethinking Load Growth in U.S. Power Systems

U.S. energy regulators face challenges in meeting the escalating electricity demands of data centers used to power artificial intelligence, as well as other new large energy loads. Yet the recent release of DeepSeek, a seemingly more energy-efficient AI model, puts counterpressure on regulators not to overinvest in new power generation and transmission infrastructure in case energy demand falls short of forecasts.

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A new study from Duke University scholars finds the U.S. power system has extensive untapped potential to more quickly add large loads while mitigating the need for costly system upgrades—as long as those loads can occasionally cut their power use when the grid is most stressed.

The first-of-its-kind analysis provides a first-order estimate of the volume of new flexible load that could be added within the existing capacity of each of the 22 largest balancing authorities, which represent 95 percent of the power system.

Here are three key takeaways from the report, published today by Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability:

1. Load flexibility could be a critical tool to support economic growth while maintaining grid reliability and affordability. Load flexibility refers to the ability of customers to temporarily reduce their electricity consumption from the grid. That could be accomplished by using onsite generators, shifting workload to other facilities or reducing operations. It offers a near-term alternative to more expensive—and less climate-friendly—measures.

2. Balancing authorities could collectively add nearly 100 gigawatts of large loads to the grid with minimal impact. The study introduces a new concept—curtailment-enabled headroom—to describe how much additional load the grid can absorb using existing capacity, with modest, brief reductions in usage. The 100-GW estimate assumes that these new loads would be curtailed an average of 0.5 percent of their maximum uptime each year to help the grid meet peak demand, such as on extremely hot or cold days. The average curtailment time would be about two hours, which is consistent with the storage capacity of short-duration batteries.

3. The estimated annual curtailment time is comparable to existing demand response programs already in place around the United States. These programs incentivize customers—primarily industrial and commercial energy users—to change their electricity usage. The changes help reduce peak loads or provide other services, such as targeted deferral of grid upgrades or integration of wind and solar energy that are available at varying times.

“Our study demonstrates that existing U.S. power system capacity—intentionally designed to handle extreme peak demand swings—could accommodate significant load additions with modest flexibility measures,” said lead author Tyler Norris, a Ph.D student at the Nicholas School of the Environment with more than a decade of experience in the energy sector. “Overall, the findings suggest that load flexibility offers a promising near-term strategy for regulators and market participants to more quickly integrate new loads, reduce the cost of capacity expansion and enable greater focus on the highest-value investments in the electric power system.”

The study was conducted by Norris; Tim Profeta, senior fellow at the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability and associate professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy; Dalia Patiño-Echeverri, associate professor at the Nicholas School of the Environment; and Adam Cowie-Haskell, a graduate student at the Nicholas School.

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CITATION: Norris, T. H., T. Profeta, D. Patiño-Echeverri, and A. Cowie-Haskell. 2025. Rethinking Load Growth: Assessing the Potential for Integration of Large Flexible Loads in US Power Systems. NI R 25-01. Durham, NC: Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University. https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/publications/rethinking-load-growth.

For media inquiries, contact the Nicholas Institute communications team at ni-comm@duke.edu.