Electricity demand is skyrocketing in the United States, driven by data centers, increased electrification and new manufacturing.
Duke University created the Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability to address emergent challenges like this one. Institute experts are helping policymakers and industry leaders identify ways to manage the surge while protecting reliability, affordability and climate progress.
Rapid demand growth poses a challenge for power grid operators. Connecting massive data centers to the grid quickly can strain existing infrastructure, prompting costly upgrades or new power generating capacity, including via fossil fuels.
In late 2024, Southeastern utility regulators explored this issue at a long-running energy policy forum convened by the Nicholas Institute—one way the Institute connects Duke expertise with real-world decision-making.
There, a conversation among a regulator, Nicholas Institute expert Tim Profeta and Duke Ph.D. student Tyler Norris sparked an intriguing question. The U.S. electricity grid is designed to handle peak demand—like a hot summer afternoon—but operates well below capacity most of the time. What if data centers and other new large electricity users could shift demand away from peak periods?
Within six weeks, the conversation led to an influential Nicholas Institute report that helped catalyze industry and policy discussions about large-load flexibility.
The idea is simple: new large electricity customers agree to briefly reduce power use when the grid is stressed in exchange for connecting to the grid without immediate system upgrades.The concept of load flexibility was not new, but system planners lacked a clear sense of how much flexible demand the grid could handle. The Duke report showed the potential could be enormous—nearly 100 GW if new large users temporarily reduced energy use for about 0.5 percent of the hours in a year.
The report quickly drew widespread attention across the energy and technology sectors, becoming the Nicholas Institute’s most downloaded publication on record.
“There’s a limited solution set that can meet this unprecedented load growth in a cost-effective, sustainable way,” said Norris, who conducted the analysis as part of his work with the Nicholas School of the Environment’s GRACE Lab. “Many have focused on building new natural gas capacity, but there’s an opportunity to use flexibility to offset the need to run lower-efficiency, higher-emissions gas plants where they’re proposed.”
Utilities and tech companies—from Google to a new industry-led coalition—began citing the report as validation of emerging approaches.
In summer 2025, Constellation Energy mentioned the research when announcing a new demand response program for businesses in the PJM wholesale market, using AI tools developed by energy management company GridBeyond to help customers reduce power use at peak times.
“We’ve been saying for some time that better use of flexible load, especially during peak periods, can unlock capacity from the existing system,” said Mason Emnett, Constellation’s senior vice president of public policy. “What the Duke study does is put real numbers behind that idea. It shows how relatively small shifts in demand can unlock significant capacity from the grid.”
During Climate Week NYC 2025, Duke experts joined top technology and energy industry executives to share insights on flexibly managing electricity loads to power AI more sustainably.
The Nicholas Institute has continued to inform efforts to address rising energy demand, often teaming up with external partners. Institute experts are serving on state-level committees, advising decision-makers and publishing additional research and recommendations.
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) actions demonstrate the influence of Duke’s load growth work.
FERC cited the initial Duke report in a December 2025 order directing PJM to establish transparent rules around the co-location of data centers and other large loads with generating facilities.
Also in late 2025, Energy Secretary Chris Wright directed FERC to develop federal rules to expedite large load interconnection. Nicholas Institute experts collaborated with energy law firm Roselle LLP and former FERC commissioner Allison Clements to outline policy considerations for flexible loads to inform the rulemaking. Dozens of filings submitted by stakeholders in support of load flexibility pointed to the work of the Institute and its partners.
In June 2026, FERC issued orders recommending several reforms to the six regional grid operators under its jurisdiction. Among them was providing new transmission services for flexible large loads.
Over two decades, the Nicholas Institute has built deep relationships with decision-makers, connecting them to rigorous Duke research at moments when it can shape action. As electricity demand reshapes the power sector, the Institute’s approach is helping leaders evaluate solutions for reliable, affordable and cleaner energy.
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